Data may be out of date. Last advisory 272 h 56 min ago. Check NHC directly.
Tropical Storm Vance Tracker
Live forecast cone, path and warnings
Not an official forecast. For warnings and evacuation orders, follow NHC, SMN Mexico and your local authorities.
Watches & warnings
No coastal watches or warnings are in effect.
Source · NHC · SMN advisory 20
Key messages
FULL ADVISORY 20As of NHC advisory 20 (Oct 26 09:00 UTC), Tropical Storm Vance was centered near 15.3°N 105.1°W, about 260 miles (420 km) SSW of Tecomán, Mexico. Maximum sustained winds were 65 mph (100 km/h), making it a tropical storm, with a minimum central pressure of 995 mb. It was moving NW at 6 mph (9 km/h).
- 01Although the threat to southwest Mexico is decreasing as the forecast track shifts westward away from the coast, interests there should continue to monitor Vance's progress.
- 02Periods of heavy rainfall associated with Vance will impact portions of western Mexico during much of this week. This rainfall may produce flooding and mudslides across Sinaloa and along western portions of Jalisco, Nayarit and Durango, especially in areas along steep terrain.
Key messages are quoted from the NHC forecast discussion. Numbers are never rewritten.
Forecast
NHC advisory 20| When | Time | Position | Strength | Wind | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | 15.3°N 105.1°W | TS | 65 mph / 100 km/h | Current position | |
| +12 h | 15.6°N 105.9°W | TS | 60 mph / 95 km/h | ||
| +24 h | 16.1°N 106.9°W | TS | 50 mph / 85 km/h | ||
| +36 h | 17.2°N 107.6°W | TS | 45 mph / 75 km/h | ||
| +48 h | 18.5°N 108.0°W | TS | 45 mph / 75 km/h | ||
| +60 h | 19.9°N 108.1°W | TS | 45 mph / 75 km/h | ||
| +72 h | 21.4°N 108.0°W | TS | 40 mph / 65 km/h | ||
| +96 h | 23.2°N 107.9°W | TD | 35 mph / 55 km/h | Post-tropical | |
| +120 h | 24.5°N 108.0°W | TD | 35 mph / 55 km/h | Post-tropical |
Intensity
How far is Vance from me?
Tropical Storm Vance FAQ
Where will Tropical Storm Vance make landfall?
The current NHC forecast does not show the center of Vance moving inland during the 120-hour forecast period. Timing and strength can change with each advisory, so follow the official warnings for your area.
How strong is Tropical Storm Vance right now?
As of advisory 20 (Oct 26 09:00 UTC), Vance has maximum sustained winds of 65 mph (100 km/h), making it a tropical storm. The minimum central pressure is 995 mb. It is moving NW at 6 mph (9 km/h).
Will Tropical Storm Vance affect the United States?
As of advisory 20 (Oct 26 09:00 UTC), NHC has no watches or warnings for the United States and its key messages do not mention U.S. impacts. Check again after the next advisory.
When is the next advisory?
The next NHC advisory on Vance is expected at Oct 26 15:00 UTC. NHC issues complete advisories every six hours (03, 09, 15 and 21 UTC), with intermediate advisories every three hours while coastal watches or warnings are in effect. This page shows recorded data and may lag behind these releases; check NHC for the current advisory.